Stockholm Q4: The Season's Biggest Winners and Losers
The fourth-quarter earnings season on the Stockholm Stock Exchange took place against a backdrop of a strong market rally, with the OMXS30 index climbing 6.8%. However, the results were characterized by significant disparity: commodity companies enjoyed record profits, while several real estate and industrial firms showed weakness. The season clearly separated the winners from the losers.
Results: Operating profit surged by an explosive 111.8% and net profit by 325.6%. Reasons: The main driver was a 57.1% increase in the selling price of copper, which sent both revenue and profitability to new heights. Reaction: The stock initially reacted modestly (+1.8%) but has since risen strongly, now up a total of 17.0%.
Results: Operating profit growth accelerated to 73.5%, and net profit grew by 81.3%. Reasons: The growth was driven by a significant rise in the price of gold, which offset lower sales volumes and enabled the payment of large dividends. Reaction: The stock initially fell by 1.9%, but investors reassessed the situation, and the share has since risen by 11.2% following the results.
Results: The company made an impressive turnaround, moving from a SEK 53.5 million loss to a SEK 33.2 million operating profit. Reasons: The turnaround was driven by the faster-than-expected sales success of the Alzheimer's drug Leqembi, which significantly increased royalties and collaboration revenues. Reaction: The stock jumped 12.4% on the day of the results, but this was followed by strong profit-taking, leading to a total decline of 10.5%.
Results: Operating profit grew strongly by 27.3%, although the growth has slowed slightly compared to previous periods. Reasons: The success is attributed to the continued strong sales of key products, especially CERAMENT G, in the US market, which is the company's main growth driver. Reaction: The stock reacted positively, rising 3.7% on the results day and has continued to climb, now up a total of 7.3%.
Results: Operating profit grew by 6.1%, a strong result in a challenging market environment, outperforming competitors. Reasons: Bravida managed to offset a slight decline in sales revenue with good cost control, reducing production costs by 2.6%. Reaction: The market received the results very well, with the stock rising 10.3%. After the initial rally, the price has corrected slightly but remains 6.7% higher.
Results: Operating profit surged by an explosive 144.3% and net profit by over 1300%. Reasons: The growth was driven by very strong sales of partner games, especially trading card games like Pokémon. Reaction: The stock initially reacted with a modest 1.5% rise but has since declined and is now trading 6.8% lower than before the results.
Results: Operating profit grew strongly by 17.4%, although operating expenses also increased sharply. Reasons: Growth was supported by new properties and rising rental prices in the logistics sector, which remains strong. Reaction: The stock rose 6.6% on the results. Although some of the initial gain has been given up, the share is still up 2.4%.
Results: The investment firm reduced its operating loss by 55.4%, a step in the right direction but still lagging behind competitors. Reasons: The result was improved by a significantly smaller decline in the value of financial assets compared to the previous year. Investors are awaiting the IPO of portfolio company Silex. Reaction: The stock reacted to the results with a 1.6% rise and has continued its upward trend since, now up a total of 5.9%.
Results: The company turned a SEK 304 million loss into a SEK 288 million profit. Reasons: The result was deceptive, as the profit turnaround was due to the absence of a one-off expense from the previous year. In its core business, revenue fell by 12.6% as the company terminates low-margin contracts. Reaction: The market saw through the results, and the stock fell 14.3%. Although the share has recovered slightly, it is still 6.1% lower than before the results.
Results: The decline in operating profit accelerated to -3.8%, and the company reported a net loss. Reasons: The decline was caused by reduced rental income and increased maintenance costs. However, after the results, the company announced a large and profitable property sale. Reaction: The stock fell 2.9% on the results, but the news of the property sale reversed its course. Overall, the share is up 4.9%.
Results: The results turned sharply negative, with operating profit falling 23.9% and net profit plummeting 88%. Reasons: Cost growth, particularly depreciation, significantly outpaced modest sales revenue growth, indicating pressure on profitability. Reaction: The stock dropped 8.5% on the results day and has continued to fall, now down a total of 10.5%.
Results: Operating profit fell sharply by 47.3%, which was a major negative surprise. Reasons: The main reason was a negative change in property values, which overshadowed stable rental operations. Reaction: The stock initially reacted with a slight increase (+1.2%) but has since declined and is now trading 2.0% lower.
Results: Operating profit plummeted 54.0% and net profit 59.9%. Reasons: The collapse in results was caused by an unexpected drop in advertising revenue, as the largest advertising partner changed its algorithm, reducing Truecaller's income. Reaction: The stock collapsed by 32.6% on the results day. Although the share has recovered slightly from the bottom, it is still 24.4% lower.
Results: Operating profit returned to 14.3% growth, which was a good result on paper. Reasons: The growth was driven by a sales recovery in Europe. However, costs grew faster than revenues, raising concerns about margins. Reaction: Investors focused on the margins, and the stock fell 9.8%. The selling pressure has continued, and the share has now dropped by a total of 26.8%.
Conclusion
The fourth-quarter earnings season in Stockholm was a mixed bag. Although the overall market index showed strength, company results were highly dependent on the sector and specific factors.
The clear winner was the commodities sector, where Lundin Mining and Lundin Gold reported explosive profit growth thanks to high metal prices. Individual success stories also stood out in healthcare (BioArctic, Bonesupport) and the gaming industry (Asmodee), which showed strong growth due to innovation and market share gains.
On the other hand, challenges persisted in the real estate and construction sectors. Hufvudstaden's and Castellum's results were pressured by changes in property values and rising costs, although Bravida showed good resilience. The season's biggest disappointments came from the technology sector, where the collapse of Truecaller's advertising business and the investor reaction to concerns about engcon's margins led to sharp stock declines.
In summary, the market rewarded strong fundamentals and mercilessly punished companies that fell short of expectations. This highlights the need to focus on company-specific analysis even in a rising market.
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