Baltic Market Q4: 15 Key Earnings Season Stocks
The Q4 2025 earnings season in the Baltic markets offered mixed emotions. Between January 8 and March 9, the OMX Baltic index fell by 5.6%, reflecting a challenging economic environment. The results showed a clear divide: some companies managed to post record profits through cost-cutting and strong demand, while others fell victim to consumer uncertainty and rising costs.
Results: The company's operating profit grew explosively by 1211.6%, turning to a profit of €17.0 million, which significantly exceeded expectations. Reasons: The main driver was an accounting change in the assessment of the useful life of ships, which reduced depreciation costs by €13.8 million. The result was also supported by cost savings. Reaction: The stock initially reacted with a +4.3% rise but has since given back some gains, though it remains above its pre-earnings level.
Results: An impressive turnaround occurred as last year's loss was replaced by an operating profit of €1.8 million (a 206.6% increase). Sales revenue grew by 58.6%. Reasons: The growth was driven by strong demand for electrical equipment, especially in the Norwegian market, where sales grew robustly. Cost-effectiveness also improved. Reaction: The stock jumped 4.7% on the results but has since corrected slightly, reflecting partial profit-taking after the rapid rise.
Results: The real estate developer's operating profit grew by 282.2% to €7.0 million, and sales revenue increased by 150.3%, making it one of the season's strongest performers. Reasons: The excellent result was driven by the successful handover of apartments in the Kalaranna and City Villa development projects in Tallinn. Reaction: The stock reacted strongly, initially rising by 6.1%. Although some of the gain has been given up, the price is still higher than before the results.
Results: Continued its strong momentum. Operating profit growth accelerated to 29.2%, and sales revenue grew by 7.1%, confirming the company's stable growth. Reasons: Growth was driven by an increase in the number of mobile service customers and growing demand for IT services among business clients. Reaction: The stock price remained stable on the day of the announcement and has since fallen slightly, reflecting the broader market downtrend.
Results: An extraordinary turnaround. The company earned an operating profit of €3.0 million compared to a small loss previously (a 9125% increase). Sales revenue more than doubled. Reasons: The explosive growth was driven by exceptionally strong sales in Europe, which grew by 250% thanks to large projects. Reaction: The market reacted euphorically. The stock jumped nearly 21% the next day and has maintained its high level since, being one of the season's biggest gainers.
Results: The growth pace accelerated further, with operating profit increasing by 91.4% to €4.6 million, continuing its series of strong results. Reasons: The success was driven by a record performance in the consumer loans business, reflecting loan portfolio growth and stable demand. Reaction: The stock did not react initially but has risen by 5.0% since the results and news of expansion into Romania, reaching a new 52-week high.
Results: A powerful profit turnaround. From last year's loss of €6.8 million, the company reached an operating profit of €19.8 million. Reasons: The result was achieved through effective cost-cutting rather than sales growth. Costs for purchased services and raw materials decreased significantly. Reaction: The stock rose 2.2% on the day of the results and has maintained its level, reflecting investor approval of the return to profitability.
Results: A very weak quarter. The decline in operating profit accelerated to 89.3%, falling to just €2.8 million. Sales revenue dropped by 56.9%. Reasons: The result was affected by the completion of large construction projects and a loss in the real estate development segment, as apartment sales decreased sharply. Reaction: The stock fell 6.7% on the results and has continued to decline, now down over 12% from its pre-earnings level.
Results: Profitability collapsed. Operating profit plummeted 93.7% to just €0.2 million, which was one of the season's biggest disappointments. Reasons: The main reason was the uncontrolled growth of costs, especially the cost of goods sold and distribution expenses, which eroded sales revenue. Reaction: The stock price remained unchanged on the day of the results but has fallen 2.0% in the following days, reflecting deepening problems.
Results: Showed signs of improvement. The decline in operating profit slowed to 17.6%, a better result than in the previous quarter. Reasons: Although rising interest expenses still hampered the result, growth was supported by new businesses, particularly the operations of the UK bank. Reaction: The stock reacted to the results with a modest 0.4% rise and has remained stable since, suggesting the situation is stabilizing.
Results: Returned to growth, outperforming competitors. Operating profit grew by 4.0% after a decline in the previous quarter. Reasons: Growth was supported by a decrease in interest expenses and continued growth of the loan portfolio, which offset the pressure on interest margins. Reaction: The stock reacted modestly to the results but has since declined, reflecting broader market sentiment and profit-taking.
Results: The retailer made a turn for the better. After a long decline, operating profit turned to 23.8% growth. Reasons: Growth was driven by increased sales revenue in Lithuania and Latvia and an improved gross margin, indicating successful inventory management. Reaction: The stock rose 1.7% on the day of the results and has held its level, reflecting investor confidence in the recovery of the retail market.
Results: A weak result. The decline in operating profit accelerated to 33.6%, disappointing investors. Reasons: The main blow was a sharp drop in car sales revenue, affected by the car tax introduced in Estonia. The supermarket segment also showed weakness. Reaction: The stock fell 2.0% on the day of the results but has since recovered somewhat, now trading slightly above its pre-earnings level.
Results: Showed signs of stabilization. The decline in operating profit slowed to 17.8%, and sales revenue turned to 34.1% growth. Reasons: The strong sales growth was driven by new infrastructure projects. Profitability was helped by a reduction in administrative expenses. Reaction: The stock fell 4.7% on the results and has continued to decline, indicating investors' ongoing concern about margins in the construction sector.
Results: Profit growth turned into a decline. The widely-followed company's operating profit decreased by 19.4%. Reasons: The decline was caused by operating expenses, especially repair costs at passenger harbors, which grew significantly faster than revenues. Reaction: The stock fell 1.2% on the results and has remained at that level, reflecting investor concern about rising costs and shrinking margins.
Conclusion
The fourth-quarter earnings season in the Baltic market was multifaceted, reflecting a cooling economy and the varying adaptability of companies. Several broader themes emerged.
First, operational efficiency was a key driver of profitability. Companies like Infortar and Tallink achieved impressive profit turnarounds primarily through cost control rather than sales growth. Meanwhile, Silvano and Grigeo suffered precisely because of rapid cost increases.
Second, consumer uncertainty was felt in the retail sector. TKM Grupp's results were hampered by a decline in car and supermarket sales, while Apranga managed to deliver a positive surprise, suggesting shifts in consumer behavior.
Third, major divergences appeared in the construction and real estate sectors. While Merko Ehitus faced a steep decline, Nordecon showed signs of stabilization, and Pro Kapital Grupp had a record quarter thanks to successful project sales.
In the banking sector, there were signs of normalization after an extraordinary period of interest rate hikes. LHV's profit decline slowed, and Coop Pank returned to growth, indicating that competition is intensifying.
In the next season, investors will be closely watching whether companies can maintain cost discipline and if consumer demand shows signs of recovery.
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